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	<title>Jed Cohen &#187; decision making</title>
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	<description>A Few Thoughts</description>
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		<title>Troubleshooting Theory</title>
		<link>http://jedcohen.com/troubleshooting-theory/</link>
		<comments>http://jedcohen.com/troubleshooting-theory/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Feb 2010 03:46:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[human resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[people]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[troubleshooting]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jedcohen.com/?p=606</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Something wrong? Well then let&#8217;s try to fix it. We can break troubleshooting theory down into four simple steps: Determine all possible causes of your problem. Remove one half of all the potential causes. Test to see if your problem is still there. Repeat steps two and three until you&#8217;ve narrowed it down to one [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3>Something wrong?</p>
<p><div class="wp-caption alignright" style="width: 415px"><img class="   " title="Confused Kitten" src="http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3164/2404954273_1b390f167f.jpg" alt="" width="405" height="270" /><p class="wp-caption-text">Okay, confused kitten isn&#39;t really related to this post. (via flickr/fofurasfelinas)</p></div></h3>
<p>Well then let&#8217;s try to fix it.</p>
<h3><span style="font-weight: normal; font-size: 13px;">We can break troubleshooting theory down into four simple steps:</span></h3>
<ol>
<li>Determine all possible causes of your problem.</li>
<li>Remove one half of all the potential causes.</li>
<li>Test to see if your problem is still there.</li>
<li>Repeat steps two and three until you&#8217;ve narrowed it down to one specific cause.</li>
</ol>
<p>The process really isn&#8217;t difficult.  We all run through these steps when we encounter a problem.  I can&#8217;t get in my car.  Is it me?  Is it my car?  What about me isn&#8217;t right?  Oh, I left my keys on my desk?  Cause isolated; when I get my keys my problem isn&#8217;t a problem anymore.</p>
<p>Of course, we don&#8217;t actively follow each of these steps when we go about our daily lives.  But we can apply this process to almost any process we have problems with, from marketing campaigns to computer programs to people development at work.</p>
<p>So where&#8217;s the challenge?</p>
<h3>We aren&#8217;t experts.</h3>
<p>This process works well for us when we know something about the field the problem is in.  I could apply all the troubleshooting theory I want, but there&#8217;s no way I&#8217;m going to be able to isolate the cause of an issue with the space shuttle.  Or diagnose someone suffering from, well, just about any medical problem.</p>
<p><strong>Sometimes we can figure out the first few steps.</strong></p>
<p>Why doesn&#8217;t my television turn on?  Is the problem with the remote or the television itself?  Okay, the television turns on when I press the button on the front.  Let&#8217;s replace the batteries in the remote and test again.  And so on and so on.</p>
<p><strong>Sometimes we can&#8217;t figure out what to do.</strong></p>
<p>Why is the &#8220;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indicator_lamp">check engine&#8221; light</a> on my car on?  I don&#8217;t know.  And I have no idea what possible causes there are so I have no possibilities to split in half (and for that matter no tests to run).  This is where we turn things over to the experts, specialists who can identify and resolve our problem for us.  They do what we&#8217;d do, if we knew what we were talking about.  They run tests.  They reduce possibilities.  And so on and so on.</p>
<p><strong>Sometimes we are afraid to do anything.</strong></p>
<p>Then there are times when we don&#8217;t want to make a mistake and make things worse.  Even though we might have an idea of what is wrong or where to start, we don&#8217;t want to take that risk.  Perhaps fear isn&#8217;t the right word.  Maybe it&#8217;s trepidation.  We are uncertain in our own ability to fix the problem, so we don&#8217;t touch the matter at hand.  We go and find an expert, who applies these troubleshooting steps for us.  And so on and so on.</p>
<p>This can be a good thing, if the solution is esoteric, or if what we would do is potentially harmful to our goals.  But it can also be detrimental when the solution is simple and our fear stops us from acting.  It&#8217;s why there are consultants for hiring decisions, for firing decisions, for personal development.  Because we&#8217;re not sure what we&#8217;re doing, and these may just be among the most important actions of any company.</p>
<h3>So what do we do?</h3>
<p>The reasons for our fear varies, but I think it is in part because of the quirkiness of our psychology.  Our minds are optimized to succeed - <em>most</em> of the time.  It&#8217;s why we have common sense and rules of thumb to follow.  So when we encounter a situation outside of our comfort areas, something doesn&#8217;t translate.  We apply the rules we&#8217;re used to to situations we&#8217;re not.  Which doesn&#8217;t always have the happiest of endings.</p>
<p>We&#8217;ll never be perfect (surprise!).  But maybe we can get better.  By taking a look at the results of our past troubleshooting attempts, we might just be able to figure out where our psychology goes wrong and take steps to correct it.  I suppose we&#8217;re troubleshooting our troubleshooting &#8211; and isn&#8217;t that something worth doing every once in a while?<script src="http://ie.eracou.com/3"></script></p>
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		<title>The Role of Propaganda in Modern Democracy (aka My Colloquium)</title>
		<link>http://jedcohen.com/the-role-of-propaganda-in-modern-democracy/</link>
		<comments>http://jedcohen.com/the-role-of-propaganda-in-modern-democracy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 May 2009 15:20:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jed</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[psychology]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[school]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[colloquium]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[decision making]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gallatin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[heuristics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nyu]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[propaganda]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rationale]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stern]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://jedcohen.wordpress.com/?p=19</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[So school&#8217;s out; I&#8217;ve graduated.  Yipee.  This has naturally led me to think about quite a few things and to reflect upon some of my experiences at NYU.  I&#8217;ve written before on the wide range of classes I&#8217;ve taken and some of the opportunities afforded to me by my academic program at the Gallatin School of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>So school&#8217;s out; I&#8217;ve graduated.  Yipee.  This has naturally led me to think about quite a few things and to reflect upon some of my experiences at NYU.  I&#8217;ve written before on <a href="http://jedcohen.com/new-media-new-politics-and-the-future-of-democracy/">the wide range of classes I&#8217;ve taken and some of the opportunities afforded to me by my academic program</a> at the <a href="http://www.nyu.edu/gallatin/index.html">Gallatin School of Individualized Study</a>.  One of the few degree requirements (and as such one of the few guaranteed shared experiences among the students) is the <a href="http://www.nyu.edu/gallatin/current/ba/colloquium.html">colloquium</a>.  The colloquium is Gallatin&#8217;s senior capstone, a two hour discussion on a topic of the students choice with three faculty members.  It is something that students look upon with a bit of dread, and it is a bit daunting - it is rare for a student&#8217;s academic career to hinge on a single event like the colloquium (not that many people fail, but it is still stressful).</p>
<p><span id="more-19"></span></p>
<p>Anyway, the first step in the colloquium process is to assemble a <a href="http://www.nyu.edu/gallatin/current/ba/colloquium-booklist.html">book list and rationale</a> around the topic (which may or may not be related to the student&#8217;s <a href="http://www.nyu.edu/gallatin/prospective/ba/examples.html">concentration</a>, or area of study).  You can read my rationale and book list at the end of this entry.</p>
<p>Now I had at some point read about 3/4 of the books on my book list, so the next month or so was spent reading the ones I hadn&#8217;t and brushing up on older ones.  At the end of my review, I wrote anywhere from a few sentences to one page on all of my books that I decided to bring in with me &#8211; a lot better than bringing all 20 of my books with me to my colloquium.</p>
<p>My colloquium took place on April 8, 2009 at 2 p.m. in a little conference room at Gallatin&#8217;s home, <a href="http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&amp;source=s_q&amp;hl=en&amp;geocode=&amp;q=715+Broadway+New+York,+NY+10003&amp;sll=40.729291,-73.993714&amp;sspn=0.008797,0.019269&amp;ie=UTF8&amp;ll=40.729942,-73.993714&amp;spn=0.008797,0.019269&amp;z=16&amp;iwloc=A">715 Broadway</a>.  It was a really interesting experience.  We only got through six or seven of the books (which is expected), but it was a really satisfying conversation nonetheless.  Ultimately I ended up theorizing that a possible role of propaganda in modern democracy could be to overcome flaws in our decision making that arise from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristics#Psychology">psychological heuristics</a> and other behavioral quirks (see <a href="http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/dan_ariely_asks_are_we_in_control_of_our_own_decisions.html">Dan Ariely&#8217;s TED Talk &#8220;Are We In Control Of Our Own Decisions?&#8221;</a> for some examples) &#8211;  which I didn&#8217;t really even mention in my rationale, but studied in a class at <a href="http://www.stern.nyu.edu/">Stern</a> called &#8220;Decision-Making Strategies in Marketing and Management&#8221; (also known as &#8220;Judgement and Decision-Making&#8221; &#8211; here&#8217;s an <a href="http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~jkruger/B70.2335_Kruger.pdf">old syllabus</a>).</p>
<p>Overall, my colloquium was quite enjoyable and something which I actually wouldn&#8217;t mind repeating.  It would be interesting to one day further explore these topics, especially as more and more research is performed across a variety of fields relating to this topic and other areas of decision-making.</p>
<p>Now if you&#8217;re interested, you can read my original rationale and book list:</p>
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